In quantum mechanics, the uncertainty principle (in its most simple terms) means that researchers can’t simultaneously measure separate physical characteristics (such as position and momentum) with the same precision.

Fisheries managers have dealt with the uncertainty principle in a different way and at different levels for decades.

And according to the latest analysis, climate change could add to the uncertainty by significantly altering the variability of fish population sizes and locations, which, in turn, would boost the need for greater flexibility in managing those populations. The slow, cumbersome management processes in place today could quickly become a rematch of the tortoise and the hare, and this time “slow and steady” would lose the race.

Those processes fail to account for two vital variables: climate change and human behavior, which, like a particle’s position and momentum, are hard to measure, either separately or simultaneously.

“What climate change will do is pit the increased resource variability against the rigidity of the process,” said Susan Hanna, an Oregon State University (OSU) fishery economist who co-authored the report scheduled for publication in the journal “Marine Policy.” Derived from a special session “Climate Change as an Emerging Issue in Fisheries Governance” at the 2008 International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade Biennial Conference in Vietnam, the report focuses on seven short international case studies in fisheries management, including the Columbia River Basin salmon effort.

“Over time, manager will have to become more conservative to account for the greater uncertainty, and we will need to do a better job of understanding the effect of uncertainty on human behavior,” Hanna noted.

She is a professor in OSU’s Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics based at Hatfield Marine Science Center in Newport. Affiliated with the Coastal Oregon Marine Experiment Station and Oregon Sea Grant, Hanna has served as science advisor to the Pacific Fishery Management Council, the Northwest Power and Conservation Council, the National Marine Fisheries Service, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the U.S. commission on Ocean Policy.

She said most fishery management models incorporate the latest data on fish populations and distribution, but fail to factor in climate data. They must adapt those models to include the effects and potential negative impacts of El Nino, La Nina, and other ocean conditions.

A prime example is the delay in spring upwelling in 2005 and its “catastrophic effect on ocean production” that many biologists consider as the cause of the recent collapse of salmon runs on the Klamath and Sacramento rivers.



Incentives and access

Hanna acknowledges that shorter fishing seasons and lower quotas understandably frustrate commercial and recreational fishermen.

Better information about human behavior is vital. While resource managers are well-stocked with data about numbers of fishermen, where they fish, and what they fish for, they know much less about how folks would react to regulation changes (other the predictable disgruntlement about more restrictions), and especially how they would adapt to climate change.

“We have a history of implementing regulations that have unintended consequences,” said Hanna, citing the example of what often happens when managers limit the number of boats within a fishery intending to limit fishing effort. Too often, it has the opposite effect.

“A boat limit as the single control over a fishing effort will give those who have the permits the incentive to invest in more speed and more gear to become more effective at catching fish,” she noted. “Managing resource sis all about incentives.”

Fisheries management has become more complicated. Salmon management, for example, cuts across numerous boundaries, and involves many divergent groups - ocean trollers, river gill netters, recreation anglers, Native American tribes, and more - with claims on limited salmon resources.

Changes in ocean conditions - whether natural or triggered by human activities - are complicating the complexity. In the past, fishermen could adjust to closures or shortened seasons simply by switching to different species. Now, most fisheries are locked up.

“If it’s a bad year for salmon, you can’t just switch to crabbing or fishing for rockfish unless you have the permits,” said Hanna. “It’s not a question of gear, but of access.”



Cooperation

Hanna called West Coast fishermen progressive.

They contribute to the knowledge base through cooperative research and participation in management decision-making processes. She said some grumble about regulations, but they generally understand the need for management, and often take the lead in proposing new management approaches.

“Fishing operations are regulated businesses that fare more successfully the better they are understood,” Hanna concluded. “We need to do a better job of knowing how fishermen will respond to changes in catch rates and length of season, if we want to continue to have sustainable fisheries, because greater uncertainty lie ahead.”

Hanna’s co-author were Alistair McIlgorm of Southern Cross University (Australia); Gunnar Knapp of the University of Alaska-Anchorage; Pascal Le Floc’H of the University of Brest (France); Frank Millerd of Wilfrid Laurier University (Canada); and Minling Pan of NOAA Fisheries Service in Hawaii.



Terry Dillman is the assistant editor of the News-Times. Contact him at (541) 265-8571, ext 225, or terrydillman@newportnewstimes.com.



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